Give your foresight workshop a decision to answer

A leadership team considering a new service needs to understand which changes deserve attention and what those changes mean for its own position. A foresight workshop can help, provided the sponsor can explain how the discussion will inform the choice.

Begin the brief with that choice. Name the person who will act on the output, the options still open and the point at which a direction is needed. This gives participants a way to judge which signals and uncertainties are relevant to the work.

My Three Lenses of Foresight framework holds long-range scanning, present-territory sense-making and near-term action in one model: Telescope, Map and Compass. The following planning exercise shows one way to connect those lenses to a decision. The organisation and situation are hypothetical.

Start with a choice someone owns

Imagine a professional services firm deciding whether to invest in a digital channel for existing clients. Its current service relies on personal relationships. Some clients have asked for easier access to documents and progress updates between conversations, while the leadership team is unsure how far to change the delivery model.

The sponsor needs a recommendation before the next investment review. There is still room to consider a limited trial, a wider investment or an improvement to the existing service. The workshop brief should preserve those options long enough to examine the evidence.

Participants need to know who will receive their recommendation and which commitments have already been made. If the budget or a technical constraint rules out an option, bring that into the brief before the group spends time developing it.

Telescope: choose signals relevant to the question

The scanning work can examine changes that might affect how clients expect to receive advice. Participants could look at developments in adjacent services, changes in the tools clients use and emerging expectations around access between meetings.

Ask the group to record the source and explain the possible connection to the investment decision. Distinguish an observed change from a prediction about what it will become. An interesting signal may justify further investigation even when it provides little support for an immediate investment.

The sponsor should be able to see which uncertainties the group considers important and why. That record is more useful than treating every development collected during the session as equally significant.

Map: describe the present territory

The firm also needs a shared view of how its current service works. Where do clients value a conversation with an adviser? Which requests concern simple access to existing material? What would staff need to maintain a digital channel alongside their current responsibilities?

These questions call for evidence about this organisation. If participants disagree about what clients want, record the disagreement and identify what would help resolve it. The workshop may expose a need for further client research before a recommendation can be made confidently.

Consider the interdependencies as well. A channel that looks straightforward to a client may create additional work for the people keeping information current. Make those consequences visible in the options the group examines.

Compass: specify the next action

The group can now consider a recommendation in the light of both the outside signals and the firm's present position. A limited trial might be appropriate if it can answer an important uncertainty within the organisation's constraints. Further investigation may be more useful if the group still cannot explain which client need the investment would address.

For each proposed next step, record who would own it, the evidence it should produce and the decision that evidence would support. Where an assumption could change the recommendation, make the assumption explicit. The sponsor can then see what the group is asking the organisation to commit to and what remains unresolved.

A sponsor brief to complete before the workshop

Use the following prompts to prepare the session. Keep the answers short enough for participants to refer to during the discussion.

• The decision: What choice needs to be made, and which options are still open?
• The owner: Who will act on the output, and when do they need it?
• The boundaries: Which resources, permissions and existing commitments constrain the work?
• The starting evidence: What do we know already, and where do the important disagreements sit?
• The output: What should the sponsor receive, including the conditions and uncertainties attached to any recommendation?

Return to this brief when the discussion broadens. A new uncertainty may deserve attention, but the group should be able to explain how examining it will help with the sponsor's decision. If the decision itself changes, update the brief so that the participants and sponsor are working towards the same output.